2014 is upon us. So, what's gonna happen? Let's make some predictions. And by "let's," I mean "me."
- Gov. Walker will be re-elected, probably by a margin similar to the 2010 election and 2012 recall. He has a high floor of support...and opposition, leading to about 5% of the electorate on the fence. A good amount will end up in Walker's camp. Then, the 2016 speculation goes full-blast.
- The Republicans maintain control of the legislature. They're set to pick up John Lehman's State Senate seat due to redistricting (he won his in the recall under the old, swing-ish boundaries), and even if Dale Schultz loses in the August GOP primary (I predict he won't), the margin stays at least 18-15 Republican in the Senate...and, potentially 19-14 with Bob Jauch's retirement.
- Kathleen Vinehout won't win the Democratic gubernatorial primary, but regardless of what happens, Democrats barely hold her seat in the general election.
- The Confluence Project referendum will pass...and then, we'll see what legal opinions further-direct the City Council. The Project will ultimately get built, but perhaps under a different method of financing.
- Kerry Kincaid will get re-elected as Eau Claire City Council President.
- Nationally, the Democrats maintain control of the U.S. Senate, as the ACA rollout becomes lesser of an issue and the growing economy satiate the public. This will be close, the GOP likely picking up 4-5 seats, but the Dems may hold due to Joe Biden's Vice Presidential role as President of the Senate (re: tiebreaker).
- And, most importantly: some of these predictions will turn out to be way-different than reality.